The Church of Christ in the U.S. Is Dying!
by Gary Calton
via Sentry Magazine, Vol. 19 No. 1, March 1993
Not too long back, a friend of mine was attempting to secure a place to preach. During that effort, he visited a congregation that had a large sum of money in the treasury. As he and I discussed the lack of interest some churches seem to have in supporting preachers, I asked him where they got all the money. He replied, "Oh, they got it from another church which gave up, sold their building, and gave the money to them." I was distressed. I had never heard of such a situation, and he then told me, "Oh, it happens all the time out in California." I still couldn’t believe my ears.
I read an article about the same time in which one brother said that people were always asking him how we were doing. His reply, "Just fine." He said that he could preach in 10 times as many churches now as he could when he was a young man. I didn’t think that the situation was that good, but then I don’t get to travel as much as he does. Here in the Northeast, the local church where I was a member at the time had baptized about 25 persons a year, most of whom were friends, neighbors, and drop-in visitors.
A few months later, another friend who had been trying to relocate told me that the same thing was happening in Florida. I didn’t think that his statements could be factual, either. I did have access to a couple of books that had some statistics on the situation, and I decided to sit down and see if it could be true. You aren’t going to like the data any better than I did. In fact, you are going to be shocked just as I was. You may say, as one friend did, that the data is flawed since most people ignore surveys. That may be true, but if you dispute the data, you need to have an alternative set. I have given this information to several other preachers, and they all start out not believing the data, only to be amazed that such a thing could happen. It remains to be seen whether you can be shocked out of your complacency and into action or whether you’ll shake your head and stay right where you are, doing just what you have been doing.
As you will see, all of the men cited above are guilty of hyperbole, based on their perception in a limited situation. The date you will see is neither as bleak as the first man supposed nor as rosy as the second believes. To put this in perspective, in a multi-level sales scheme, exemplified by Mary Kay Cosmetics, Amway, and Shaklee, the motivators stress that if you are not adding 10% new distributors every year, you are dying. This is due to the number of persons who will drop out. The multiplying-ministries concept is loosely based on the same scheme. The motivators also say that of every ten persons you bring into the sales scheme, five will come in only for their own purchase, three will do very little, one will do all right, and one will be a success. Only one in a hundred will be a wild success. Think of the parable of the sower, "But other fell on good ground, and brought forth fruit, some an hundred fold, some sixty fold, some thirty fold" (Matthew 13:8). You might at this point examine your life and see whether you are a part of the problem before us. The question should never be, "How are you doing?" but rather "How am I doing?"
Let me say at this point, I am not your judge; the Lord is. Please don’t get mad at me for showing you something you don’t want to believe. Please don’t write me to tell me I am wrong unless you have data to show that isn’t the case. Please recognize that what is happening in some active and growing work does not mean that all works are in the same shape. Neither does the fact that one church is dying mean that all are dying. I also realize that God does not need significant numbers, as Elijah, who thought he was alone, was one out of 7,000 in a total population of over 3 million (I Kings 18, 19).
Let’s look at the data. Between 1979 and 1990, the following statistics were obtained for the number of churches and the number attending churches of Christ in the US.
| Region | Congregations in 1979 | Congregations in 1990 | Members in 1979 | Members in 1990 | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT) | 111 | 112 | 8,880 | 12,446 | +65% |
| North Atlantic (NJ, NY, PA) | 343 | 389 | 28,696 | 39,421 | +37% |
| South Atlantic (DE, DC, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV) | 1514 | 1696 | 167,721 | 202,165 | +21% |
| East South Central (AL, KY, MS, TN) | 3266 | 3364 | 433,830 | 436,815 | +1% |
| West South Central (AR, LA, OK, TX) | 6429 | 8920 | 560,604 | 583,242 | +4% |
| East North Central (IL, IN, MI, OH, WI) | 1332 | 1346 | 155,883 | 156,517 | +0% |
| West North Central (IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, SD) | 918 | 875 | 80370 | 79485 | -1% |
| Mountain (AZ, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, UT, WY) | 555 | 621 | 57,210 | 63,906 | +12% |
| Pacific (AK, CA, M, OR, WA) | 941 | 983 | 115,683 | 121,795 | +5% |
| Territories | 43 | 40 | 1,484 | 1,526 | +3% |
There were some states in which the church grew significantly:
| State | 1979 | 1991 | Change | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA | 2507 | 6621 | 4114 | 164% |
| NY | 7413 | 12004 | 4591 | 62% |
| PA | 6554 | 10822 | 4268 | 65% |
| FL | 57497 | 72953 | 15456 | 27% |
| GA | 35757 | 46667 | 10910 | 31% |
| NC | 14212 | 20101 | 5889 | 41% |
| SC | 8680 | 12861 | 4181 | 48% |
| MS | 34148 | 40345 | 6197 | 18% |
| Total | 166768 | 222374 | 55606 | 66% |
I only hope that you will note that the states in which the church grew most significantly were the states in which the church was weakest in the first place. Florida. Georgia and Mississippi were pleasant surprises. We will look at Florida in particular to determine the cause of growth.
There were some states in which the church decreased significantly:
| State | 1979 | 1991 | Change | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WV | 30473 | 25059 | -5414 | -18% |
| OH | 51081 | 47979 | -3102 | -6% |
We need to look at the country's overall population growth during that period, and we can assume that members of the church had about the same number of children as the rest of the population. The U.S. population increased by 9.8% between 1980 and 1990. The state of WV lost 8% of its population during that period, which may explain the decrease in the number of Christians.
To see whether the number of churches aligned with a particular line of thinking had any effect, I carefully examined the data (obtained from "Where the Saints Meet--1984" and "Churches of Christ in the U.S. -1991," compiled by Mac Lynn) available for the state of Florida. In 1991, Florida had 146 non-institutional churches out of a total of 514 churches of Christ. In 1984, there were 147 non-institutional churches out of a total of 491. Thus, the perception that non-institutional churches of Christ were closing their doors was incorrect. The total number of Christians attending those churches was 8,864 in 1991 and 8,512 in 1979, for a net increase of 352, or 4.1%. Obviously, the increase had little to do with the evangelization of the conservative churches. (The population growth exceeded that 4.1% by more than double.) Also, one church in Orlando accounted for nearly 50% of the total increase. The average congregation in this group had 61 in attendance. Only 10 of them had 150 or more in attendance; 19 had between 100 and 149; the largest had 339. Figures for "Mainline" (as Lynn would style them) churches were no better.
Another significant problem is the inability of non-institutional Florida churches to support an evangelist adequately. The average church has a per-person contribution of $10 based on attendance (my estimate). It is evident that the majority of churches there cannot fully support a gospel preacher. Using reasonable figures, it would take a church of at least 100 in attendance to generate only $30,000 per year — if no building payments are included! Presumably, only 29 churches in the state can fully support a gospel preacher. A lack of an evangelist would account for some of the failure to evangelize adequately.
Not wanting to believe what provoked this study, I took the time to look at the state of California, which, unfortunately, shows a similar pattern of growth. Non-institutional churches accounted for 133 of 676 churches and experienced a 4.9% decrease over the 12 years, compared to a 4.2% increase overall. The most significant decline in any congregation was 85, while the largest increase was 232. The pattern seemed to be decreases of 10 to 50 and increases of 10 to 20. Three churches grew by more than 100 persons, and 16 decreased by more than 50 persons.
There can be no question about the truth of the title of our article. The only question is how long the church will take to die in the U. S. It would appear that things are worse for the non-institutional churches simply because of the age factor and the 30-40 years since the institutional "division." It will not be long before those stalwart Christians who stood firm for the defense of the faith will cross over Jordan. This points out the need for additional conversions should the average age in the church you attend be in such a situation. (There is, of course, a better reason for personal evangelism. That is, because the lost-and-dying world needs the gospel of Christ, and preaching it is what the Lord’s should be all about.) You may think things are all right in your state, but the real question is: How many are being converted to the Lord where you worship? You can’t take care of the world unless you are willing to do your work (II Corinthians 5:10) and be a great sower, fully appreciating your responsibility. A gentleman I spoke with who researches church growth said that 80-90% of conversions in most churches were "biologically connected." By this, he meant that they were children of the members. Brethren, it is very good that our children have been converted to the Lord. We must work to save every one of our children! But growth will only occur when we go out into the world and convert the rest of the lost.
I asked a class of 35 mature Christians to consider the following questions and suggest reasons this unfortunate situation exists in the U.S. The following questions present themselves (if one believes the data).
- Why has this lack of growth occurred?
- Who is to be blamed for this problem?
- What can be done to stop the decline?
- Why have the "mainline" churches suffered the same decline?
- Why have the "multiplying ministry" churches increased so much?
Here are some reasons we thought of, and multiple sermons can be preached on each.
- Lack of love for the Lord.
- Lack of commitment to the Lord.
- Lack of love for the souls of the lost.
- Lack of teaching of non-members by evangelists.
- Lack of teaching of non-members by the rest of us.
- Misunderstanding of the work of an evangelist. (Most think he is little more than a "sheep-feeder," a pastor.)
- Satisfaction with the church, including its size.
- Insufficient number of preachers.
- Too many small churches, each with its own building.
- Lack of training of evangelists, pastors, and deacons.
- Lack of financial support for preachers by the church.
- Lack of spiritual support of preachers by the church.
- Inability of brethren to get along.
- Discouragement over the church members' actions.
- Discouragement over the actions of the elders, evangelists, teachers, or song leaders.
- Power struggles in the church.
- Needlessly negative overtones from the pulpit.
- A lack of balance in positive versus negative preaching.
- Incompetent preachers and teachers.
- Minority rule in the congregation.
Who is to be blamed for this problem? It seems to me that there is plenty of blame to go around. These Christians certainly came up with a long list of problems they have seen.
The truth of the matter is that all of these reasons center on one problem. Jesus put it this way, "Master, which is the great commandment of the Law? Jesus said unto him, Thou shalt love the Lord thy God with all thy heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy mind. This is the first and great commandment. And the second like unto it, Thou shalt love thy neighbor as thyself" (Matthew 22:36-39). I remember many years ago when I first heard Peter Wilson say it, "There are only two reasons the church in any locality is not growing. Either there are 'no good and honest hearts' or else no one is 'sowing the seed.' That is true here in the Northeast, and it’s true wherever you are reading these words. As Peter went on to say, 'I don’t believe that there is a shortage of good and honest hearts.'"
Think about the list of problems. Preach on the list of problems. Add to the list of problems. But brother or sister, if you are not part of the solution, you are a part of the problem. One elderly writer said that he was glad his father stayed in Texas, where the church was strong, rather than moving to where it was weak. You may have the same attitude, but as the song asks, "Did He not also die for these lost ones, haste let us point the way unto heaven."
